Serious questions for the West

Russia views the war with Ukraine not as a war against that individual state but against a coalition of states, members of NATO, in response to their extensive supply of weapons and support of various kinds to Kiev. The United States, or rather the current presidency, as in the Cold War years are again the main enemy of Russia. Moscow, therefore, feels involved in a war against the entire West that it considers as a real threat to its existence.

There is doubt that the Atlantic Alliance countries, with the exception of Turkey, have not weighed the consequences of having followed American directives.

Unfortunately, many years of dialogue with Moscow on building a strategic partnership based on trust have now been destroyed.

In February 2023, Putin pointed out that the current Western policy has become a deadly threat to Russia: “In the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the West has never stopped trying to weaken the post-Soviet states, especially Russia, the largest surviving portion of the USSR. The West has favoured the action of international terrorists and regional conflicts, has ignored Russian interests, our history, our culture. Through Yeltsin it tried to disrupt our economy. The Western elite makes no secret of its objectives: the strategic defeat of Russia. What does this mean for us? That they intend to destroy us once for all. If this is inderstood the seriousness of the threat to our country becomes evident”.

Many European leaders are aware that it is a proxy war but they must remain silent. Let us recall Macron’s various attempts to resolve the issue of the Russophone populations of the Donbass. The agreement reached with Zelensky, ten days before the war began, was cancelled by Zelensky just twenty-four hours later. Macron had underestimated the extent to which Kiev had to obey orders from Washington.

At the time of the 2010 NATO summit in Lisbon, Western leaders did not see Russia as a security threat, in fact they spoke with the Russian President with confidence and cordiality about a new phase of cooperation and a true strategic partnership. Putin was well disposed because he saw Western recognition of his country.

The war has produced no concrete results other than the massacre of the Ukrainian people, immense destruction throughout the country and severe damage to the economies of many European states that had a large market in Russia. The war in Ukraine has made the already weak Europe even weaker for any coordinated action.

Arms manufacturing companies are watching with interest the protraction of the conflict whose end, if anything, they fear. General Dynamics, which produces the artillery used by Ukraine, has increased its revenues by twentyfive percent compared to before the war. The company RTX which is producing rockets for Kiev has informed Wall Street analysts that since February 2022 it has received orders for 3 billion dollars. Significant increases were also recorded by American company Northrop Grumman, the Swedish company Saab and the German company Rheinmetall.

Neither the West nor Russia can affar to lose this war that would mean losing prestige and authority. What are the possible prospects? Next November there may be a different administration in Washington with different agendas favourable to starting negotiations with Russia. In this way the famous considerations of Von Clausewitz would be reversed: politics would become the continuation of war by other means.